Justin Gaethje (@1.53) vs Donald Cerrone (@2.5)

Our Prediction:

Justin Gaethje will win

Justin Gaethje – Donald Cerrone Match Prediction | 15-09-2019 01:00

In regard to experience in the UFC, Gaethje has 4 fights which means he has less UFC experience, while Cerrone has compiled a total of 30 fights in the Octagon. In relation to reach, Gaethje measures 70.0" while Cerrone measures out at 73.0" meaning Gaethje is going to want to close the space so Donald Cerrone won't be able to use it to his advantage. Gaethje is the younger combatant in this fight at 30 years old while Cerrone is the older combatant in this fight at 36 years old. Justin Gaethje has the better eye for striking, landing 54.7% of his strikes which means Donald Cerrone will look to be on the watch for big shots. When it comes to overall mixed martial arts experience, Gaethje has 20 wins and 2 losses while Donald Cerrone is the owner of an overall fight record of 36 wins and 12 losses. When looking at this fight with Justin Gaethje and Donald Cerrone, you will want to know how these two fighters stack up to one another. In relation to physical attributes, let us start by taking a look at Justin Gaethje who is 5'11", while the opponent on the other side of the cage is 6'1".

Cerrone is going to have a hard time keeping up. The technique isnt as good and theres counters there for the opening when it comes to fighting Gaethje, but weve seen Cowboy struggle with pressure fighters in the past and it doesnt get more dangerous than his opponent here. If other fighters were like him, this sport would be even bigger than it currently is. Gaethje is a brawler who is going to walk down his opponent and looks to finish things quickly with powerful hands. First off, we have to commend Cowboy and his schedule, as the guy never takes an easy fight and is back in the octagon before his wounds from his previous battle even had time to heal. We saw Cerrone struggle with the pressure, work rate and quickness from Ferguson, and Gaethje is even more wild and careless. With that out of the way, Gaethje should win this fight. Cerrone gives the fans what they want and hes a legend for that.

He only has tough fights and strung three impressive wins together in beating Mike Perry, Alexander Hernandez and Al Iaquinta but he is coming off a loss to Tony Ferguson. Cerrone is content putting on shows to please his fans and every other fan that appreciates Mixed Martial Arts. His longevity is extremely impressive, making his 33rd UFC fight, but his talents speak for themselves as he holds the records for the most wins, finishes, post-fight bonuses and knockdowns in UFC history.

Donald Cowboy Cerrone was on his way towards another crack at UFC gold before his defeat to Tony Ferguson in June, but the veterans momentum was well and truly halted when a gruesome eye injury put a stop to that contest at UFC 238 under doctors orders. Justin The Highlight Gaethje meanwhile has recaptured some of his momentum after an 18-fight unbeaten start to his mixed martial arts career was ended with back-to-back defeats.

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Where Darren Till and Rafael dos Anjos just pushed him back and smashed him, Leon Edwards and Jorge Masvidal solved his approach with relative ease (Masvidal with his careful distance-closing and jab, Edwards with his southpaw kicking and counterpunching game). That said, those weaknesses still exist, and he tends to lose catastrophically when his singular tool to manage the distance is successfully navigated. Cerrone is also one of the more defined momentum-fighters in MMA, for better or worse; his attack snowballs heavily and his opponents tend not to mount comebacks if it piles up, but his losses tend to be extremely lopsided beatings before Cerrone finds opportunities to do anything of effect (and a bad first round often portends a bad fight for him). Cerrone has a number of traits that define a problematic matchup, from southpaws to good body-hitters (where Cerrones body is historically quite fragile) to sound pressure-boxers, and he hasnt really shown an answer to any of those yet. Whether Justin Gaethje can exploit those tendencies is yet to be seen.

This will be Cerrones fifth career fight in Canada. Cerrone is a versatile fighter who is a well decorated kick boxer, has a deep background in Muay Thai and is comfortable on the canvas to the point he has 17 career submission victories. A total of 27 of Cerrones 36 victories have come by some sort of stoppage. Cerrone obviously isnt wasting any time stepping back in the octagon, as this will be his fourth fight of the year and hes earned performance bonuses in each of his last four fights. Donald Cerrone enters this fight with a 36-12 record and has won 47 percent of his fights by submission. A polished wrestler who almost always has the edge on the canvas, Cerrone closes range well with those leg kicks and usually gets the fight where he wants it. Cerrone has split his last 10 fights and is coming off a June loss to Tony Ferguson. Cerrone is averaging 1.29 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 35 percent. Cerrone is coming off a second round knockout loss that was forced to be stopped after he blew his nose and his eye swelled shut. Cerrone ate 104 significant strikes in the bout and was running out of answers well before the fight was stopped. A tough fighter who clearly isnt backing down from the competition, Cerrones work rate and willingness to take on whomever is why hes popular with fans. Cerrone is averaging 4.2 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent.

We could be set for a bit of a slugfest before a brutal KO to end the show at Fight Night 158. However, that wont help Cowboy against Justin Gaethje this weekend, with the 30-year-old looking to get back to the top of the lightweight rankings. Donald Cerrone is adored by UFC fans around the world, and there are lots of fighters in combat sports who should take a leaf out of his book when it comes to their schedule and willingness to take on all comers. The Highlight will apply serious pressure as he walks down Cerrone, unafraid to take punishment on his way in.

Gaethje is averaging 8.50 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 55 percent. Gaethje can give and take a beating, and he loves coming forward with pressure, making his opponent uncomfortable and keeping them on their toes. Gaethje has shown throughout his career that the striking power and the chin is there for him to hold his own with anybody standing up, and he proved that even more in his last bout. Justin Gaethje enters this fight with a 20-2 record and has won 85 percent of his fights by knockout. At this point, Gaethje seems to be 100 percent dedicated to his standup and wants to head hunt. This will be Gaethjes first career fight outside of the United States. Gaethje has earned performance bonuses in all five of his UFC fights. It was a risky game plan, but its what we expect from Gaethje, and he showed just how powerful his hands are if he lands clean flesh. Gaethje is fresh off probably the biggest win of his career and the most impressive, as he stood in there with a dangerous strike in Barboza, ate the leg kicks and landed a nasty right hand that knocked the lights out. Gaethje has won 10 of his last 12 fights and is coming off a March win over Edson Barboza. However, Gaethje comes from a wrestling background and has a trainer who works relentlessly on technique, so at some point youd think that would come into play. Gaethje is averaging zero takedowns with an accuracy percentage of zero percent.

A likely inhabitant of that spot is the winner in Vancouver on September 14, between top-5 contenders Justin Gaethje and Donald Cerrone; on one side, a fighter who seemed to find a ceiling on his extraordinarily violent style early in his UFC tenure only to shatter it and remain in the top 5 anyway, and on the other, one whos maintained absurd staying-power as a borderline-elite presence despite sustaining one-sided losses from time-to-time that would spell the end of that status for anyone else.


A win over Gaethje would be one of the most impressive of his career. After a short but memorable campaign to the upper-end of the lightweight rankings, Donald Cerrone finds himself in a familiar position; having lost to an elite fighter at UFC 238, the legendary workhorse looks to bounce back by making a fairly quick turnaround to fight for the fourth time in 2019. Cowboy is getting older and his fights at this point are whether his opponents can find a way to exploit the well-defined weaknesses right below the surface, but Cerrones win over Al Iaquinta showed that hes (at least) still quite good and a challenge for most opponents who arent built in way that rips open his weaknesses.

Gaethjes flaws tend to just be fighters better in his preferred areas than he is; to date, no opponent has been able to outright deny Gaethje of his favored fight, and none have been able to shut him out in that range either, but Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier (and, to some effect, Michael Johnson) were able to find opportunities with their deep skillsets in the pocket. Unlike certain other elite lightweights (such as Barboza), there isnt a key to beating Gaethje that drastically reduces his effectiveness; anyone who faces him is forced to concede his fight, and the only way to beat him so far has been to be better than him where hes best. Alvarez and Poirier, in particular, did a great deal of work drawing and manipulating Gaethjes guard to strike elsewhere (e.g. Alvarez using body shots to set up the uppercut, Poirier using the jab to draw the shell and punching around it), where Johnson found most of his success on the counter.

We just havent seen much of it yet in the UFC. The 30-year-old Arizona native displayed his fearsome punching power in those two bouts, as well as his strong fight IQ and tactics. Gaethje has bounced back from those losses to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier with two KO victories over James Vick and Edson Barboza. Gaethje is an aggressive fighter who walks down his opponents, but he also has an excellent ground game thanks to his college wresting background. A successful night in British Columbia would continue his recovery and leave the Highlight on the cusp of a title shot.

At UFC Fight Night - Ottawa 2019, he stepped out of the ring with a win via unanimous decision in round 5 when he faced Al Iaquinta. Cerrone sits at 2nd out of all the athletes in the division for significant strikes pointed at the body with 301 and 7th for significant strikes directed at the head with 525. Dillashaw by stoppage. In addition, Cerrone sits at 24th in the lightweight division and 105th among athletes in the UFC with a total of 16 takedowns. In the fight before that, Cerrone stepped out of the ring with a win in round 2 when he faced Alexander Hernandez at UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. In the matter of strike accuracy, he is connecting on 51.6% of the strikes he has thrown which has him sitting at 48th in the lightweight division and 269th among athletes in the UFC. Sitting at 77th out of all the athletes in the division and 352nd among athletes in the UFC, Cerrone finishes 27.1% of his takedown tries. With 1,154 significant strikes, he sits at 9th among athletes in the UFC and 2nd out of all the athletes in the division.

In the matter of strikes, Cerrone is 27th out of all fighters in the UFC and 8th out of all the athletes in the division with 1,278. He has earned a total of 30 fights in the UFC. Entering the cage for this fight, Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone has a total of 36 wins and 12 losses. The USA fighter competes in the lightweight division and has a 73.0" reach. Donald Cerrone took a loss by unanimous decision when he faced Tony Ferguson in his most recent fight at UFC 238 - Chicago 2019. The 36-year-old fighting out of Albuquerque, NM measures 6'1" tall and steps on the scale at 155 lbs.